*UK General Election 2010: Will David Cameron Be Hung Out To ‘Dry’?*

Well, the British polls are going up and down like Dick Cheney and Bill Clinton’s EKG’s. Probably giving British Tory Party Leader, David Cameron, more than the occasional heart murmur (http://tinyurl.com/ybtc3vm). But the fact remains this: the Tories are ahead in the 60 most marginal UK Parliamentary Constituencies, and Young Dave is more than likely to succeed Gordon Brown as Prime Minister later this year.

However, it is becoming increasingly clear either that Dave may have only a very small overall majority (we have a lot of minority Parties in the UK), or even that he will find that he has the largest number of MP’s in the newly-elected Parliament, but without an overall majority – what we charmingly and somewhat grotesquely call a ‘hung’ Parliament (http://tinyurl.com/ydhghmn). And yes, we’ve heard all the jokes…

Now, contrary to what most of the pundits in the UK are speculating, I think that, in such circumstances, Dave is going to have difficulty governing with any consistency. Not because of his inability to keep the opposing Parties at bay. But due to the new found, frisky independence of his own MP’s.

Just to set this in context. We all know that the underlying theme of Obama’s first year in office, and his continuing travails with healthcare reform, is how to keep the ranks of Senate Democrats lined up behind his proposals, so that Republicans cannot filibuster their passage – the so-called Super Majority of 60 Senators.

British Prime Ministers normally do not have such problems. In the UK Parliament, our Party Whips are more than mere window-dressing. They do actually wield power. And the tactics they use to ensure that every last one of the Prime Minister’s MP’s vote ‘Yes’ would make even the most extreme political dominatrix blush.

My favorite is what we call the Three Line Whip – http://tinyurl.com/yc2mqqk – which is basically a penalty flag, red card and air raid siren, all rolled into one. You defy one of these babies, and you are declaring that you became an MP because you really, really wanted to spend the rest of your life reviewing pest control problems in the Outer Hebrides.

The problem is that Dave (who as a politician, makes a pretty good Eton-educated barrow boy; he is to public relations what Lucifer is to sin)…where was I?…oh yes…Dave, in his all-consuming drive to return the Tories to government, after 13 years in the wilderness, has made sure that he hasn’t missed a trick to convince the British electorate of his sincerity.

That includes establishing himself as the Alpha and Omega when it comes to responding to the public’s disgust with professional politicians. No more, exclaims Dave. The Tories are now the Party of political purity.

Last summer, he issued an invitation for folks, who were not Tories, to apply to be his Members of Parliament. Every chosen Parliamentary Candidate has to sign a form undertaking that, in the event of a conflict of conscience between an elected MP’s own views and the interests of his constituents on the one hand, versus what his own Party and Prime Minister are urging on the other hand, the Tory MP must choose his conscience and constituents. Which effectively consigns the Tory Parliamentary Whips Office to toilet detail.

Of course, you say, no Tory MP is actually going to defy his Prime Minister. I mean, he or she wants to curry favor in order to get a plum job. Right? Not so fast. After this next Election, it may not be as simple as that.

The Tories are likely to be hanging on to government by their fingertips (you’ll have noticed lots of hanging references in British Parliamentary jargon). In order to win, the Tories will have to capture about 150-200 Parliamentary Seats from the other Parties – the largest electoral swing to the Tories since 1930. This new intake of Tory MP’s will be the single largest influx of Tory MP’s in one Election in history.

It will be the clearest representation possible of the irrefutable volatility of the British electorate. A volatility which is daily being recorded in those rollercoaster polls. An electorate which can swing so wildly one way, one day can just as quickly and violently swing the other way, the next day. Your average newbie Tory MP is going to know that. And they’re going to know that the job they want to protect is the one they already have (MP), rather than holding out hope for a job they might never get (Minister).

Time was, even a few decades ago, we all knew which were the safe seats and which the unsafe, for any given Party. Yet, boundaries have changed so much in the past couple of decades, politics has been so uncertain, that no-one really knows what the new ‘safe’ is. Every single one of those 150-200 new Tory MP’s (out of a total of about 350-400 Tory MP’s) is going to be sitting on what they will still regard as a marginal seat. That’ll make them more likely to want to please their new constituents, rather than their new Prime Minister.

Add to this the fact that, again, in his never-ending campaign to return the Tories to power, Dave insisted that seats choose their Candidates as early as possible in this last Parliamentary cycle, and that chosen Candidates then move lock, stock and barrel into their seats. None of this commuting to the country from the London ‘burbs. Dave wanted each and every one of his Candidates to be able to say, after a couple of years, ‘hey, I’m local, too.’

In his newfound progressivism, Dave also ‘invited’ all of his Candidates to undertake a welter of ‘social action’ projects in their respective constituencies, the more to ingratiate themselves with their chosen ‘locals.’

The upshot of all this is, when push comes to shove, most of this new intake of Tory MP’s is likely to turn around and say, ‘er, Dave, I’m just as responsible as you for my getting elected; I’ve got to consider my constituents if I want to keep the seat; nothing is certain with my constituents; and, by the way, you told me to put my constituents before you…so…sod off.’

It gets worse. The Party attaining power after an Election has to find about 150-190 MP’s to form a Government and fill important associated Parliamentary positions. Dave is highly unlikely to form a Government made up of MP’s who’ve only just been elected. So, he’s going to have to use the boys and girls who are already there. Who are not necessarily the ones calling for the Great Dave Progressive Revolution.

So. There may be something of a lag in Dave being able to introduce all those wonderful, radical ideas that he is convinced will (a) reform GB; and (b) ensure his re-election. Rendering even more wobbly his powers of persuasion when it comes to those newly-independent MP’s. Who, as I’ve just said, will be on the backbenches, not in Government. As a general rule, the Headboy tends to have more sway with his fellow Prefects than with the guys having a quick smoke behind the cricket pavilion…

Those nervous MP’s might be better persuaded if the Headboy was having demonstrable success on the national stage, rather than having to negotiate every day with a bunch of go-slow, has-beens from a previous era. An era which was visibly more right-wing than Dave’s current precocious and fragile progressive perch.

In other words, in his first year, Dave could be getting it from both ends. A Government made up of old-timey MP’s, who yearn for the days of Iron Maggie [Thatcher], and who may be a little leery of Dave’s touchy-feely ‘hug-a-hoodie’ approach. And a whole flock of backbenchers too new to be in Government, anxious at any sign of a lack of public progress, and nervously glancing over their shoulders at their constituents’ ever-changing outlook (http://tinyurl.com/yata6ba).

Add to this the fact that whoever is elected is going to face a smorgasbord of intractable problems – runaway government debt; an economy that could deflate if public spending cuts are too severe; and two wars in lands where the British have a history of getting a bloody nose. The chances are that Dave could be facing an inevitable one-term administration (not unlike Obama) – and I’m pretty certain all of the new intake of Tory MP’s will be painfully aware of this possibility also.

AND. Yes, it never ends! There is one other entity to which a Tory MP must pay constant obeisance – his or her Constituency Association. It matters not if you are an MP who was ever so graciously and delicately ‘parachuted’ into a seat by Central Conservative Campaign HQ. The Association retains the right to deselect you and find another.

The Associations are, at least for the moment, somewhat to the right of Our Dave. Look, some of them (cf. Norfolk, Suffolk, et al – http://tinyurl.com/yzmbcnl) are to the right of Attila the Hun and Cardinal Richelieu. As a general rule, Associations will pretty much back anyone or anything that puts the Tories back in Government. But not necessarily this time.

In addition to being a tad unhappy about some of Dave’s ‘wetter’ policy initiatives, the goodly folk in Association Land are definitely up in arms about his attempts to impose his chosen Candidates on Associations, which fiercely protect their prerogative to choose their own Candidates and MP’s (http://tinyurl.com/ygz6k3d).

At the slightest sign of anything other than overwhelming success by Dave at the top, it may well be that these Associations will exact their revenge by replacing their ‘wet’ Flopsy Mopsy, MP with something a little more ‘dry’ – say, Sir Hunting Horsewhip, MP. [Er…’wet’ = progressive; ‘dry’ = Thatcherite…for my US Friends.]

Are you beginning to sense a potential trend here? Far from being a wave of New Tory progressivism, Dave’s election may well herald a return of old-style Thatcherism. First, with the old-timers he may have to call on to man his new Government. And then, with a new intake of MP’s nervous about failure and anxious of what their Associations might do to them (http://tinyurl.com/ya4c6tf).

Where it gets really interesting is how Dave decides he has to react to such a trend. Let’s back up a bit. If this coming Election leaves the UK with a hung Parliament, the word is that Dave will introduce the Budget he wants (regardless of old-timer MP’s, new intake, Associations or constituents), and then dare the opposing Parties to reject it.

Whether they do or not, it is highly likely that we will see another Election within the year. I do not think that that Election will have any more clear a result than the first. In which event, Dave has already indicated that he is not unwilling to make overtures to the middle-of-the-road Liberal Democrats (http://tinyurl.com/ybjyvgu).

Your average hot-blooded Tory Constituency activist would rather walk on hot coals, and then feed them to his progeny, than join forces with the Liberal Democrats. But Dave wants power. Or rather, his Notting Hill-set Tories want power that badly. And that’s his position now – he’d do a deal with the progressive Liberal Democrats to attain or stay in power.

Let’s say in this next Election, or a second, after the first leaves us with a hung Parliament, let’s say Dave ends up with a smallish overall majority or a second hung Parliament. Let’s say he finds it difficult, nigh on impossible, to negotiate a path through his now frisky and more right-wing old-timers/Associations/fe
arful new intake, et al, on the one hand, and Liberal Democrats on the other. Let’s say it all ends in yet another Vote of Confidence in Parliament (the convention being that, if you lose one of those, you have to call another Election). Throwing all of that into the pot, might Dave decide re-alignment is the answer?

I mean, I’ll give him a little credit. I think he may be a genuine progressive. Whether I’m right on that or not, Dave definitely understands politics and public relations, and feels as much fealty to old-style Thatcherism as a hermit crab feels to an old shell (http://tinyurl.com/yk7wmvs).

I think that Dave knows that a lurch to the right would spell doom for his Party in any ensuing Election. The future, at least for the moment resides in the middle.

I’m not sure how it would happen, but in the light of all my Sunday-morning meanderings above, I have an inkling that, within the next ten years, we might see a major re-alignment in British politics: Dave (and the likes of the Miliband Brothers (Labour) and Nick Clegg, Vince Cable (Liberal Democrats)) leading a new (what?) Liberal Conservative Party; the Tory right joining forces with UKIP; and a substantial rump of the old Labour Party (100 MP’s?) remaining, well, the old Labour Party.

And one final prediction? If that new Liberal Conservative combo doesn’t finally put the issues of Europe and immigration to rest, then, within twenty years, I’m guessing we’ll have a very reactionary Tory/UKIP Government in Great Britain – likely, with Daniel Hannan as Prime Minister…

*/[See the original post at http://tinyurl.com/yjrrc6h, and my other political blog ("Tickertape Talk") at http://geoffgilson.wordpress.com/ <http://geoffgilson.wordpress.com/>]/*

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We go into the general election on 6 May with trust in politics and politicians at an all-time low. And I can understand why: the years of broken promises, the expenses scandal, the feeling that politicians have become too remote from the people – they’ve all taken their toll.

That’s why I’m making this contract with you.

For too long, you’ve been lied to by politicians saying they can sort out all your problems. But it doesn’t work like that. Real change is not just about what the government does. Real change only comes when we understand that we are all in this together; that we all have a responsibility to help make our country better. This contract sets out my side of the bargain: the things I want to do to change Britain. But it also makes clear that I cannot do it on my own. We will only get our economy moving, mend our broken society and reform our rotten political system if we all get involved, take responsibility, and work together.

So this is our contract with you. I want you to read it and – if we win the election – use it to hold us to account. If we don’t deliver our side of the bargain, vote us out in five years’ time.

David Cameron
Leader of the Conservative Party

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David Cameron has set out the Conservative Party’s agenda for improving quality of life.

He said that after Labour’s failures the only way to achieve real change in this country was a new, strong Conservative government.

“Whether you’ve been a Lib Dem voter or a Labour voter or a Green voter – if you care about the environment, if you want action to improve your quality of life, if you care about civil liberties, if you care about people power, if you want a clean break from the past – vote Conservative”, he said.

Click here to read David’s speech in full

The agenda includes Conservative plans on the following areas:

• Make Britain the most family-friendly country in Europe
• Improve health and well-being
• Fight back against crime
• A more liberal, tolerant and open society
• Support for the arts
• Help people to go green
• Create a low carbon economy
• Make our energy supplies
• Create a green transport system
• Protect and improve green spaces
• Hand power from Parliament to people
• Hand power to neighbourhoods
• Hand power to communities
• Hand power to local councils
• Roll back the intrusive state
• Protect our basic freedoms
• Stop Labour’s database state

You can download the agenda here

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Jeremy Paxman’s full interview with Nick Clegg

Broadcast on Monday 13 April 2010.

Nick Clegg states on camera that an Inverness MP friend, must be Danny Alexander, says Inverness needs more immigrants!!!
He obviously has no idea of the number of Eastern Europeans who are in Inverness, can’t get jobs and are having to wait months for the benefit system to provide financial support – evidence available and already reported in the Highland News.

At the Hustings at Kingussie, last Friday evening, Danny Alexander defended this position and quite amazingly seems to be supported by SNP candidate John Finnie.

Whilst campaigning, immigration concerns have mainly featured in comments received from members of the electorate.

As a responsible parliamentary candidate, I have major concerns over the ability of the region to provide the numbers of jobs to go with such an influx of  migrants Given the problems caused to the education and health services due to the diversity of languages from migrants from all parts of Europe and elsewhere, we need to very carefully consider the real requirements of the area rather than making irrational decisions that could disastrously affect our local economy.

Incomers from the UK, Europe and the rest of the world will have to be supported by the tax payer provided Benefits system if they cannot gain employment.

With the thousands of houses proposed to be built in the region, Highland Council and politicians need to concentrate minds on meaningful private sector job creation before embarking on more ” flights of fancy”.
Jim Ferguson

In a bizarre conversation after the Hustings, SNP Candidate, John Finnie, who having stated that 10,000 persons are now on the Highland Council housing waiting list said ”we are all from overseas”, when asked the question how many of the ten thousand persons on the Highland Council waiting list were from overseas! When I said that I was borne in England Mr Finnie suggested that my blood line could have originated from Romania or some other country, so therefore I was from overseas …
A quite amazing statement!
Barrie Haycock

SEE ALSO

• Paxman grills Clegg on VAT rise(01.32)
• Paxman challenges Clegg on PM chances(01.59)

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Residents are desperate to see community facilities at An Inverness development, but have grave concerns that the developer is putting profit above much needed amenity space for this growing community, as well as paying lip service to planning regulations.

“When outline planning permission was given residents expected any residential units on the site to be service flats above shops. Instead we have been bombarded with differing indicative housing layouts finally culminating in approx 12 properties being sold under the Homes for Heroes Scheme.”

“As a serviceman myself I fully support the Homes for Heroes scheme, however Milton of Leys is a vast site, and these units can easily be accommodated elsewhere rather than taking up valuable amenity open space”.

“A Nursery is being sought on land outside that zoned for amenity land on Green Open Space, it is clear the developer knows this but wants to press ahead regardless of the planning regulations to the contrary.

“Should permission be given we fear the precedents that would be set by allowing building on Green open space, as well as residential properties in future amenity areas”.

“Milton of Leys has precious few play areas for children, and as a result of reshuffling the site an area of 1.9 acres for play equipment already passed by Highland Council has been compressed into almost half its original size. Once again the community and the children lose out”

“Despite years of consultation and work on forums with elected members regarding what Residents wanted to see on the site it is becoming clear that we will get what we are given and have to be thankful for it”.

“The responsibility lies on Highland Councils Planning department to ensure communities as large as Milton of Leys maximise the little amenity space they have in the best way possible to the benefit of the residents, not the developer”.

Residents are desperate for facilities and it is clear the parties concerned are using that to their advantage.

Residents hit out at Tulloch over their Homes for Heroes ‘ploy’

locals say builders playing emotional card to get scheme support

Published: 03/04/2010

The north’s largest developer has been accused of “playing the emotional card” to try to win support for a housing scheme for disabled and injured service personnel.

Tulloch Homes wants to include 12 properties under the Houses for Heroes scheme in its plans for amenity land at Milton of Leys on the south-east edge of Inverness.

Residents have consistently opposed the Inverness-based firm’s proposals to build houses on the land, which has also been earmarked for a care home, nursery, school and shops.

The latest plans drawn up by Tulloch include houses for armed forces veterans, a move residents claim is a “good ploy” to try to win over opponents and Highland Council.

Milton of Leys Residents Association chairman Gavin Norton said: “All previous incarnations of the plans have been for residential houses for profit, not for Houses for Heroes.

“We think they are playing the emotional card by using Houses for Heroes to garner support for a residential development.”

Residents say they are not opposed to ex-service personnel living in the 600-home development, but are campaigning for the houses to be built elsewhere on the estate.

Tulloch Homes chief executive David Sutherland said he was “taken aback” by the opposition and insisted his firm would “certainly not be backtracking” on its decision to allocate land for Houses for Heroes on the amenity site.

Milton of Leys resident Barrie Haycock, who is chairman of the campaign group Planning Watch, said: “I am supportive of building Houses for Heroes, but the issue in Milton of Leys is, now that the link road has been built, Tulloch can build another 300 properties up here, taking the estate up to the original planning consent of 900 homes.

“Houses for Heroes can be built in these areas. Tulloch is using the emotional playing card with this application.”

The Houses for Heroes scheme was established in 2008 after it emerged that 5,000 ex-service personnel were homeless in Britain.

Mr Sutherland said Houses for Heroes planned to build five homes in a first phase within two years.

He said: “We have donated the site for 12 homes at Milton of Leys to Houses for Heroes out of sympathy for young injured servicemen and women, many with young families.

“I’m completely taken aback that the residents’ association has an objection to us housing these people, who have been wounded or suffered disabilities in the service of their country. They should be very proud to have them in their community. In this respect, I certainly don’t think the view is at all representative of the majority of Milton of Leys residents.

“Locating these homes beside the neighbourhood centre meets the charity’s requirements. People with disabilities need to be close to shops and services as often they cannot drive.”

Read more: http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/1674244?UserKey=#ixzz0k1LWuMdF

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Alistair Darling – Gordon Brown

Download all the Budget documents

Find all the main and supplementary Budget documents, as well as the press notices

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