• James Forsyth in the Mail on Sunday: “It will take a long time for some Tory MPs to forgive Cameron for riding roughshod over the rules of the Tory parliamentary party.”
• Martin Ivens in The Sunday Times: “Cameron’s Lib Dem partners are faithful allies for the moment but not necessarily forever. He needs an insurance policy. The loyalty of his own Tory tribe can’t be taken for granted.”
• Charles Moore in The Telegraph: “In relation to his own party, Mr Cameron seems to be throwing good faith and good manners to the winds.”
• Fraser Nelson in the News of the World: “Last week, I went along to a party of new Tory MPs – expecting to find them in a mood of air-punching optimism. How wrong I was. They were fresh out of a meeting with David Cameron. They’d expected an update about how coalition talks were going. Instead, Cam had come to stage a coup. He wanted to abolish the group of backbench Tory MPs, then junk some Tory pledges.”
• Peter Oborne in the Daily Mail: “There will be moments in the months and years ahead when David Cameron needs his backbenchers more than he does at present. He would be extraordinarily ill-advised if he continues to make enemies on the scale he has already done this week.”
• Patrick O’Flynn in The Express: “He is throwing Conservative articles of faith overboard like a balloonist getting rid of ballast in order to ascend faster to the heavens. An inheritance tax cut? Gone. Repealing the Human Rights Act? You must be joking. Keeping down capital gains tax? Don’t be silly. Repatriating powers from the European Union? Best not to, really.”

The new PM will be particularly concerned at the attack from Charles Moore. Long (and still) a big supporter of Cameron, Moore’s suggestion that Cameron is ill-mannered is quite a rebuke. Peter Oborne was also something of a cheerleader. Cameron should not dismiss Moore and Oborne in the way that he can dismiss Heffer and Hitchens.

Only four commentators regularly enthuse for Cameron; Bruce Anderson (although very critical of the election campaign); Benedict Brogan (especially during the election); Matthew d’Ancona; and Daniel Finkelstein. D’Ancona defends Cameron’s treatment of his backbenchers this morning:

“The final page of the plan published by the coalition last week is also the most important, declaring that “the deficit reduction programme takes precedence over any of the other measures in this agreement”. Cameron and Osborne know that history will judge them by their success or failure in this awesome task, and that most other criteria will seem paltry by comparison. They want to have Parliament and their party firmly under control before they begin their painful work. They are getting as many of confrontations as they can out of the way, now, when they are at their strongest. One of Bill Clinton’s campaign slogans was “Speed Kills”: always be first, take the argument to your enemy, rebut lies instantly. Cameron, whose campaign often lacked velocity, is now travelling at the speed of light. He is taking huge risks, upsetting people and storming ahead without fear or favour. Good: this is no time to go wobbly.”

That must be Cameron’s calculation. Seize control while you can. Lifelong friends form the core of his Downing Street staff. Another lifelong friend is the new Co-Chairman of the party. The 1922 Committee has been diluted by frontbenchers. Because of the Coalition, Liberal Democrat MPs are more powerful than right-wing MPs. Time will tell if this power grab works.

Tim Montgomerie

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Scots secretary post significant, says Danny Alexander

Danny Alexander said the Scottish secretary post was significant

Scottish Secretary Danny Alexander has described his post as “significant” in the UK government, despite his party’s election pledge to scrap it.

The Lib Dem MP said the role was needed to maintain the spirit of co-operation between Scottish and UK ministers.

Mr Alexander also moved away from claims the Lib Dems may suffer at next year’s Holyrood elections after the party’s coalition deal with the Tories.

He said the new UK government would deliver benefits for Scotland.

The Scottish secretary’s comments came after Prime Minister David Cameron visited Holyrood this week to call for a “fresh start” in relations between the Scottish and UK governments.

‘Direct benefits’

Speaking on BBC Scotland’s Politics Show from Birmingham, where the Lib Dems are holding a special conference, Mr Alexander was asked if he would be the last secretary of state for Scotland.

“That’s a good question – I doubt it very much,” he said.

“What we think the importance of this role is, is to ensure that we are able to maintain the spirit of co-operation between the UK government and the Scottish government and the Scottish Parliament too.

“That’s what I intend to devote all of my time to as Scottish secretary and that’s why we think this is an important and significant job to carry on with.”

Mr Alexander said he did not share anxieties about electoral consequences for the Lib Dems at the Scottish Parliament polls next year after their deal with the Tories.

Party ‘misgivings’

He argued the new government was poised to deliver reforms in areas such as tax, civil liberties and the environment.

The MP for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey added: “Those are things that are going to have a direct benefit for people all over Scotland and I think, when people see those benefits coming through, they will see the benefits of the arrangement that was entered into.”

And commenting on former Liberal Democrat leader Charles Kennedy’s admission that he refused to back the coalition deal, Mr Alexander said: “I think it reflects the fact that there are, of course, some people in our party who have maybe a few misgivings about the direction in which we are going.”

Mr Alexander added that Mr Kennedy had also talked about the benefits of a coalition agreement.

Meanwhile, Strathclyde University’s Prof John Curtice pointed out the Tories have just one Scottish MP, while the Lib Dem vote in Scotland fell back on election night.

“The Liberal Democrats clearly must be concerned about the possible consequences of this deal for the party north of the border,” he said.

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Scots voters threaten Holyrood backlash after Lib Dems back Tories

May 16 2010 Mark Aitken, Sunday Mail

DAVID STEEL yesterday admitted the Liberal Democrats fear a huge loss of support after the party agreed to back the Tories to form a government.

The Lib Dem elder statesman admitted there was a “nervousness” among supporters about the impact of the coalition deal.

He spoke out as Labour claimed 12,000 members have joined the party in the days since the election as disillusioned Lib Dem voters desert them.

Lord Steel, who led the Liberals for more than a decade and was the first presiding officer of the Scottish parliament, said: “They share my anxieties about collaboration with the Tories.

“I have been fighting the Tories ever since my by-election in 1965, so naturally it is a bit uncomfortable to make this change.

“But it has to be done in the national interest. We now have to show the clear influence we are having on the processes of government.

“I’m not saying it will be easy. I think it is going to be tough but we will face up to it and we have a year to go before the Scottish elections.”

He spoke out as experts warn the Lib Dems face a massive backlash from voters, with polling experts estimating they could lose a quarter of their seats in the Holyrood election next year.

Supporters sickened by the sight of David Cameron and Nick Clegg cosying up to each other in Number 10 are quitting the party and senior figures admit they face tough times ahead.

Labour will today write to 100,000 Lib Dem voters in target seats urging them to change their vote at the Scottish parliament election.

The Lib Dems meet at a special conference in Birmingham today to endorse the coalition.

Leader Nick Clegg, who rejected a deal with Gordon Brown in favour of one with Cameron, has already secured the support of the party’s MPs and federal executive.

The coalition is also expected to be approved by the conference but it could have a devastating impact on the party’s fortunes in Scotland, where the Tories are loathed and have just one MP.

Polling expert John Curtice believes the Lib Dems could lose a quarter of their seats at the Holyrood election. The party, led by Tavish Scott, could see their MSPs drop from 16 to 12.

Casualties could include finance spokesman Jeremy Purvis, who won Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale in 2007 with a majority of 598.

Jim Tolson, deputy transport and local government spokesman, could also see his majority of 476 in Dunfermline West wiped out.

Andrew Arbuckle, a Lib Dem councillor for more than 20 years and a former MSP, said: “I can accept people having difficulty with the coalition. If you spend your life opposing a party, it is difficult to link up with them. But it is for the greater good.

“I wasn’t an immediate convert to it but we have an opportunity to make a change and break the mould in politics.

“There is a tremendous weight on those MPs in the Cabinet to make sure it works.

“I’m sure the electorate is mature enough to realise we couldn’t continue in the state we have been in.”

But Scottish science-fiction writer Michael Cobley has written on his blog: “As an LD party member, I feel as if I’m witnessing the ritual killing of my own party’s principles, live on TV, stage by stage, as they’re fed bit by bit into the maw of the Tory machine.

“Next up, elections to the Scottish parliament in 2011, in which we see the Liberal Democrat vote collapse.”

Meanwhile, Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray will attempt to win over 100,000 people in Scotland who voted Lib Dem at the last election.

Letters will be sent to people who were canvassed at the last Holyrood election and said they intended to vote Lib Dem. The letters will be targeted in Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Fife and the Highlands.

Gray writes in the letter: “Since David Cameron walked into 10 Downing Street, hundreds of people who voted for the Liberal Democrats have contacted Scottish Labour to tell us how upset they are.

“In Scotland, many people voted Lib Dem because they wanted to be part of a forward-looking, progressive movement. The last thing they thought was that Nick Clegg would prop up a Tory government.

“People feel angry, betrayed and, in some cases, bewildered.

“I can understand that. As a minister in a previous Scottish government, I worked with Liberal Democrat coalition colleagues and found it a rewarding experience.

“But now they have thrown their lot in with David Cameron. The coalition is bringing forward Tory plans, which will hit families and threaten the economic recovery.”

Dan still man in Aviemore?

New Scottish Secretary Danny Alexander was one of the Lib Dem negotiators who sealed the deal with David Cameron’s Tories. Here, we speak to voters in Aviemore, in the heart of his Highland constituency, to find out if they back the coalition.

Sandra Taylor, 66, retired

I am not so sure about the coalition. I would like to think it would work but I have my misgivings. We’ll have to wait and see. Danny Alexander is good for this area. I know he wanted the post of Scottish Secretary abolished and now he’s got that job but I suppose under the circumstances it is understandable.

Michael Stephenson, 27, shop manager

It is true to say that the Liberal Democrats – who I voted for – and the Tories are strange bedfellows.

There will be scepticism but they have got to prove that this can work. Danny Alexander, I’m quite sure, will do a really good job as Scottish Secretary.

Jo Caird, 29, cafe worker

I voted Lib Dem but I would not have done so if I had known there was going to be a coalition with the Tories. Now it’s been done I suppose they will just have to get on with it and try to make the best of it.

Danny Alexander should do well as Scottish Secretary. He is a hard working Member of Parliament.

George Scott, 52, butcher

I am not sure I would have voted Lib Dem if I had known they would make a pact with the Tories. We will have to wait and see how it will work out. I voted for Danny Alexander because he was the only one who sent out a personal letter. He will make a good Scottish Secretary and will fight Scotland’s corner in the coalition.

Rhona McClure, hotel receptionist

I voted for Danny Alexander. Both the Lib Dems and the Tories will have to work hard to make this coalition work. Let’s hope, for the good of the country, they can do it. Our MP is a lovely man. He has no airs and graces. I’m sure he will make a good Scottish Secretary.

Will voters bite back in ballot?

John Curtice is Professor of Politics, Strathclyde University

When Nick Clegg shook David Cameron’s hand in Downing Street last week, his Holyrood colleagues must have been wondering what the coalition deal would mean for them. Liberal Democrat MSPs will have t o face the v oters in just 12 months time.

They will have to explain why their party allowed back into power a Tory party that, yet again, was decisively rejected by the voters of Scotland.

They must be fearful voters will vent their anger and disappointment in the Holyrood ballot boxes. Fortunately for them, many Liberal Democrat MSP have what appear to be relatively safe seats – though next year’s election will be fought on new constituency boundaries, so every MSP’s prospects will be more uncertain.

Three Liberal Democrat MSPs have quite marginal seats – Mike Pringle in Edinburgh South, Jeremy Purvis in Tweeddale, and Jim Tolson in Dunfermline West. Overall, the party could conceivably lose four seats – leaving it with a rump of just 12. But there might be one reason why this will not happen. The party did so badly in 2007, it only secured 11 per cent of the list vote. So perhaps the Liberal Democrats just simply cannot fall much further – which is probably just as well.

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Gordon Brown has announced he is to resign as prime minister.
This is his full statement:

As you know after the general election, that left no party able to command a majority in the House of Commons, I said I would do all that I could to ensure a strong, stable and principled government was formed; able to tackle Britain’s economic and political challenges effectively.

My constitutional duty is to make sure that a government can be formed following last Thursday’s general election.

I have informed the Queen’s private secretary that it is my intention to tender my resignation to the Queen.

I have been privileged to learn much about the very best in human nature, and a fair amount, too, about its frailties, including my own Gordon Brown

In the event the Queen accepts, I shall advise her to invite the leader of the opposition to seek to form a government.

I wish the next prime minister well, as he makes the important choices for the future.

Only those who have held the office of prime minister can understand the full weight of its responsibilities and its great capacity for good.

I have been privileged to learn much about the very best in human nature, and a fair amount, too, about its frailties, including my own.

‘Unwavering support’

Above all, it was a privilege to serve and, yes, I love the job, not for its prestige, its titles and ceremony, which I do not love at all, no, I loved the job for its potential to make this country I love fairer, more tolerant, more green, more democratic, more prosperous and more just – truly a greater Britain.

In the face of many years, challenges up to and including the global financial meltdown, I have always tried to serve, to do my best in the interests of Britain, its values and its people.

And let me add one thing also, I will always admire the courage I have seen in our armed forces.

Now the political season is over, let me stress that having shaken their hands and looked into their eyes, our troops represent all that is best in our country, and I will never forget all those who have died in honour and whose families today live in grief.

My resignation as leader of the Labour Party will take effect immediately, and in this hour I want to thank all my colleagues, ministers, members of Parliament, and I want to thank above all my staff who have been friends as well as brilliant servants of the country.

Above all I want to thank Sarah for her unwavering support as well as her love and for her own service to our country.

I thank my sons John and Frazier for the love and joy they bring to our lives and as I leave the second most-important job I could ever hold, I cherish, even more, the first as a husband and father.

Thank you and good-bye.

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*UK General Election 2010: Will David Cameron Be Hung Out To ‘Dry’?*

Well, the British polls are going up and down like Dick Cheney and Bill Clinton’s EKG’s. Probably giving British Tory Party Leader, David Cameron, more than the occasional heart murmur (http://tinyurl.com/ybtc3vm). But the fact remains this: the Tories are ahead in the 60 most marginal UK Parliamentary Constituencies, and Young Dave is more than likely to succeed Gordon Brown as Prime Minister later this year.

However, it is becoming increasingly clear either that Dave may have only a very small overall majority (we have a lot of minority Parties in the UK), or even that he will find that he has the largest number of MP’s in the newly-elected Parliament, but without an overall majority – what we charmingly and somewhat grotesquely call a ‘hung’ Parliament (http://tinyurl.com/ydhghmn). And yes, we’ve heard all the jokes…

Now, contrary to what most of the pundits in the UK are speculating, I think that, in such circumstances, Dave is going to have difficulty governing with any consistency. Not because of his inability to keep the opposing Parties at bay. But due to the new found, frisky independence of his own MP’s.

Just to set this in context. We all know that the underlying theme of Obama’s first year in office, and his continuing travails with healthcare reform, is how to keep the ranks of Senate Democrats lined up behind his proposals, so that Republicans cannot filibuster their passage – the so-called Super Majority of 60 Senators.

British Prime Ministers normally do not have such problems. In the UK Parliament, our Party Whips are more than mere window-dressing. They do actually wield power. And the tactics they use to ensure that every last one of the Prime Minister’s MP’s vote ‘Yes’ would make even the most extreme political dominatrix blush.

My favorite is what we call the Three Line Whip – http://tinyurl.com/yc2mqqk – which is basically a penalty flag, red card and air raid siren, all rolled into one. You defy one of these babies, and you are declaring that you became an MP because you really, really wanted to spend the rest of your life reviewing pest control problems in the Outer Hebrides.

The problem is that Dave (who as a politician, makes a pretty good Eton-educated barrow boy; he is to public relations what Lucifer is to sin)…where was I?…oh yes…Dave, in his all-consuming drive to return the Tories to government, after 13 years in the wilderness, has made sure that he hasn’t missed a trick to convince the British electorate of his sincerity.

That includes establishing himself as the Alpha and Omega when it comes to responding to the public’s disgust with professional politicians. No more, exclaims Dave. The Tories are now the Party of political purity.

Last summer, he issued an invitation for folks, who were not Tories, to apply to be his Members of Parliament. Every chosen Parliamentary Candidate has to sign a form undertaking that, in the event of a conflict of conscience between an elected MP’s own views and the interests of his constituents on the one hand, versus what his own Party and Prime Minister are urging on the other hand, the Tory MP must choose his conscience and constituents. Which effectively consigns the Tory Parliamentary Whips Office to toilet detail.

Of course, you say, no Tory MP is actually going to defy his Prime Minister. I mean, he or she wants to curry favor in order to get a plum job. Right? Not so fast. After this next Election, it may not be as simple as that.

The Tories are likely to be hanging on to government by their fingertips (you’ll have noticed lots of hanging references in British Parliamentary jargon). In order to win, the Tories will have to capture about 150-200 Parliamentary Seats from the other Parties – the largest electoral swing to the Tories since 1930. This new intake of Tory MP’s will be the single largest influx of Tory MP’s in one Election in history.

It will be the clearest representation possible of the irrefutable volatility of the British electorate. A volatility which is daily being recorded in those rollercoaster polls. An electorate which can swing so wildly one way, one day can just as quickly and violently swing the other way, the next day. Your average newbie Tory MP is going to know that. And they’re going to know that the job they want to protect is the one they already have (MP), rather than holding out hope for a job they might never get (Minister).

Time was, even a few decades ago, we all knew which were the safe seats and which the unsafe, for any given Party. Yet, boundaries have changed so much in the past couple of decades, politics has been so uncertain, that no-one really knows what the new ‘safe’ is. Every single one of those 150-200 new Tory MP’s (out of a total of about 350-400 Tory MP’s) is going to be sitting on what they will still regard as a marginal seat. That’ll make them more likely to want to please their new constituents, rather than their new Prime Minister.

Add to this the fact that, again, in his never-ending campaign to return the Tories to power, Dave insisted that seats choose their Candidates as early as possible in this last Parliamentary cycle, and that chosen Candidates then move lock, stock and barrel into their seats. None of this commuting to the country from the London ‘burbs. Dave wanted each and every one of his Candidates to be able to say, after a couple of years, ‘hey, I’m local, too.’

In his newfound progressivism, Dave also ‘invited’ all of his Candidates to undertake a welter of ‘social action’ projects in their respective constituencies, the more to ingratiate themselves with their chosen ‘locals.’

The upshot of all this is, when push comes to shove, most of this new intake of Tory MP’s is likely to turn around and say, ‘er, Dave, I’m just as responsible as you for my getting elected; I’ve got to consider my constituents if I want to keep the seat; nothing is certain with my constituents; and, by the way, you told me to put my constituents before you…so…sod off.’

It gets worse. The Party attaining power after an Election has to find about 150-190 MP’s to form a Government and fill important associated Parliamentary positions. Dave is highly unlikely to form a Government made up of MP’s who’ve only just been elected. So, he’s going to have to use the boys and girls who are already there. Who are not necessarily the ones calling for the Great Dave Progressive Revolution.

So. There may be something of a lag in Dave being able to introduce all those wonderful, radical ideas that he is convinced will (a) reform GB; and (b) ensure his re-election. Rendering even more wobbly his powers of persuasion when it comes to those newly-independent MP’s. Who, as I’ve just said, will be on the backbenches, not in Government. As a general rule, the Headboy tends to have more sway with his fellow Prefects than with the guys having a quick smoke behind the cricket pavilion…

Those nervous MP’s might be better persuaded if the Headboy was having demonstrable success on the national stage, rather than having to negotiate every day with a bunch of go-slow, has-beens from a previous era. An era which was visibly more right-wing than Dave’s current precocious and fragile progressive perch.

In other words, in his first year, Dave could be getting it from both ends. A Government made up of old-timey MP’s, who yearn for the days of Iron Maggie [Thatcher], and who may be a little leery of Dave’s touchy-feely ‘hug-a-hoodie’ approach. And a whole flock of backbenchers too new to be in Government, anxious at any sign of a lack of public progress, and nervously glancing over their shoulders at their constituents’ ever-changing outlook (http://tinyurl.com/yata6ba).

Add to this the fact that whoever is elected is going to face a smorgasbord of intractable problems – runaway government debt; an economy that could deflate if public spending cuts are too severe; and two wars in lands where the British have a history of getting a bloody nose. The chances are that Dave could be facing an inevitable one-term administration (not unlike Obama) – and I’m pretty certain all of the new intake of Tory MP’s will be painfully aware of this possibility also.

AND. Yes, it never ends! There is one other entity to which a Tory MP must pay constant obeisance – his or her Constituency Association. It matters not if you are an MP who was ever so graciously and delicately ‘parachuted’ into a seat by Central Conservative Campaign HQ. The Association retains the right to deselect you and find another.

The Associations are, at least for the moment, somewhat to the right of Our Dave. Look, some of them (cf. Norfolk, Suffolk, et al – http://tinyurl.com/yzmbcnl) are to the right of Attila the Hun and Cardinal Richelieu. As a general rule, Associations will pretty much back anyone or anything that puts the Tories back in Government. But not necessarily this time.

In addition to being a tad unhappy about some of Dave’s ‘wetter’ policy initiatives, the goodly folk in Association Land are definitely up in arms about his attempts to impose his chosen Candidates on Associations, which fiercely protect their prerogative to choose their own Candidates and MP’s (http://tinyurl.com/ygz6k3d).

At the slightest sign of anything other than overwhelming success by Dave at the top, it may well be that these Associations will exact their revenge by replacing their ‘wet’ Flopsy Mopsy, MP with something a little more ‘dry’ – say, Sir Hunting Horsewhip, MP. [Er…’wet’ = progressive; ‘dry’ = Thatcherite…for my US Friends.]

Are you beginning to sense a potential trend here? Far from being a wave of New Tory progressivism, Dave’s election may well herald a return of old-style Thatcherism. First, with the old-timers he may have to call on to man his new Government. And then, with a new intake of MP’s nervous about failure and anxious of what their Associations might do to them (http://tinyurl.com/ya4c6tf).

Where it gets really interesting is how Dave decides he has to react to such a trend. Let’s back up a bit. If this coming Election leaves the UK with a hung Parliament, the word is that Dave will introduce the Budget he wants (regardless of old-timer MP’s, new intake, Associations or constituents), and then dare the opposing Parties to reject it.

Whether they do or not, it is highly likely that we will see another Election within the year. I do not think that that Election will have any more clear a result than the first. In which event, Dave has already indicated that he is not unwilling to make overtures to the middle-of-the-road Liberal Democrats (http://tinyurl.com/ybjyvgu).

Your average hot-blooded Tory Constituency activist would rather walk on hot coals, and then feed them to his progeny, than join forces with the Liberal Democrats. But Dave wants power. Or rather, his Notting Hill-set Tories want power that badly. And that’s his position now – he’d do a deal with the progressive Liberal Democrats to attain or stay in power.

Let’s say in this next Election, or a second, after the first leaves us with a hung Parliament, let’s say Dave ends up with a smallish overall majority or a second hung Parliament. Let’s say he finds it difficult, nigh on impossible, to negotiate a path through his now frisky and more right-wing old-timers/Associations/fe
arful new intake, et al, on the one hand, and Liberal Democrats on the other. Let’s say it all ends in yet another Vote of Confidence in Parliament (the convention being that, if you lose one of those, you have to call another Election). Throwing all of that into the pot, might Dave decide re-alignment is the answer?

I mean, I’ll give him a little credit. I think he may be a genuine progressive. Whether I’m right on that or not, Dave definitely understands politics and public relations, and feels as much fealty to old-style Thatcherism as a hermit crab feels to an old shell (http://tinyurl.com/yk7wmvs).

I think that Dave knows that a lurch to the right would spell doom for his Party in any ensuing Election. The future, at least for the moment resides in the middle.

I’m not sure how it would happen, but in the light of all my Sunday-morning meanderings above, I have an inkling that, within the next ten years, we might see a major re-alignment in British politics: Dave (and the likes of the Miliband Brothers (Labour) and Nick Clegg, Vince Cable (Liberal Democrats)) leading a new (what?) Liberal Conservative Party; the Tory right joining forces with UKIP; and a substantial rump of the old Labour Party (100 MP’s?) remaining, well, the old Labour Party.

And one final prediction? If that new Liberal Conservative combo doesn’t finally put the issues of Europe and immigration to rest, then, within twenty years, I’m guessing we’ll have a very reactionary Tory/UKIP Government in Great Britain – likely, with Daniel Hannan as Prime Minister…

*/[See the original post at http://tinyurl.com/yjrrc6h, and my other political blog ("Tickertape Talk") at http://geoffgilson.wordpress.com/ <http://geoffgilson.wordpress.com/>]/*

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